How past scientists understood water vapor’s role in atmospheric circulation, whether those insights were lost, and what connects the drinking bird to the biotic pump concept
What a great teacher you are to accommodate your audience's wide need to understand the biotic pump phenomenon coming from different directions of thought. This essay makes it very clear. And the short video at the end is very beautiful and a call to save and restore forests everywhere. Bravo! (The historical references to Hertz and others are fascinating!)
Thank you very much for your kind words. I am finding those earlier scientific writings somehow more human than modern ones. Apparently at those times writings were not aimed to increase one's Hirsch's index but served some other purpose.
Anastassia, Dichlorometane ( Methilene Cloride, CH₂Cl₂) , the liquid originally used for the drinkining bird toy, was a very dangerous and toxic fluids to be enveloped within a fragile glass tube. Its inhalation may provoke serious health issues to your lungs if the toys breaks. I hope that Amazon/temu/aliexpress are using an alternative-safer liquid. Just in case, plse double check. We want you healthy and in good condition...!! Thanks for the interesting explanation.
Thank you, Miquel, for your careful note. It seems that they do use methylene chloride, though it is indeed toxic. E..g., in this scientific publication from 2006 https://doi.org/10.1119/1.2190688 , they investigate a toy like mine and say it contains it.
However, the glass seems to be quite robust. My bird has already fallen four times from a table ~1.2 m high, a usual thing for me, but it did not break.
Easy fix: glue a bigger-wider-heavier base under the existing base. By the way, I am promoting a regenerative proposal www.balearsverd.org, hope it may be of your interest, since it relies on both the Biotic Pump/MIllan Millan theories.
Thank you for the link! I will forward it to our colleagues Dayana Andrade and Felipe Pasini who have been running several syntropic restoration projects in Brazil, Italy and Portugal.
This is lucid and brilliant Anastassia. Can I have your permission to reprint it in the Climate Action Tai Tokerau website. https://northlandclimatechange.org/ I will acknowledge it as your work and link it to this page.
Dear Anastassia, Thanks very much for another insightful article. I went straight to the Chikoori and Jury (2010) paper - as it researched Southern Africa (where I come from). I didn't really understand half of it! :-( I actually got Chat GTP to summarize it for me, and it seems I did at least partially understand it - that, within a rainy season, there are other local drivers of rainfall that operate on 20 or 40 day (I assume that is approximate?) cycles. In addition, there appears to be evidence that better vegetation growth, initiated by earlier rain, can trigger better rain during a subsequent wet cycle. This is somewhat similar to a theory that my late mother once proposed, that those people who got the best early rains, got a better rainy season afterwards. I discussed with my mother that this effect MUST be small, otherwise whoever got the first rains would corner all the subsequent rain and we would have these random oases of lush vegetation, surrounded by swathes of semi desert. I have also been reading a paper by PTS Oliveira et al about the Water Balance components across the Brazilian Cerrado. In it he mentions using TRMM version 7 for satellite rainfall data. I would dearly like to get hold of that data for southern Africa to see whether I can see any correlation between the tree cover in different parts of Southern Province of Zambia, and the rainfall. There are areas of Malawi that have a high contrast between high tree density (in national parks) and low tree density (in communally farmed areas). If these high tree density areas can show up in areas of higher rainfall in the satellite data we would have a very strong argument (with evidence) for restoring tree cover throughout the region.
Dear Bruce, thank you for your thoughtful note. A very interesting observation from your mother, indeed. It is also possible that the effect is considerable but limited in time to one season. I.e., during the dry season everything dries out, and there is no memory of who benefited most from the previous season. This should be the case when the vegetation is annual (rather than perennuals or trees).
However, we used long-term climatological means rather than short-term data. There is a lot of variability which can mask the actual impact of trees and should be sorted out.
I think one of the reasons why Mum's theory doesn't dominate what is happening is because the early showers are too small (in area). One of the things one learns fairly early on (when living in a dry-ish farming environment) is, after a useful shower of rain, NEVER phone a neighbour and ask them excitedly how much rain they got! They are just as likely to answer "What Rain?". I believe any vegetation response to these early showers will be on such a small area, relative to the much larger weather systems, that any evapotranspiration contributed by these small areas, would be too diluted by the bigger weather systems for them to have a discernible effect. What I am hoping to find with the TRMMver7 data is on a much larger scale. I am fortunate to live on the edge of a large pocket of privately managed land that is perhaps 50kmx50km and is still covered in reasonable tree cover. I hope that this is big enough to show a correlation in higher rainfall, when compared to the surrounding (more extensive) area, which is much more seriously deforested. NASA are willing to share their data with me, but I am still learning how to ask for the data I need (which sadly, only goes back to about 1998). My worry is that I may have to do an awful lot of compiling of that data to get the actual figures I need. I am not sure whether I will have the time or the skills to do that. But I will give it my best as this seems to be a good chance to get the data that could convince our politicians to make the restoration of adequate tree cover, a part of national and regional policy.
@Nic Pacini shared with me the following article on East Africa which shows that the response can be mixed, but this is for a wetter region https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101999
Regarding your analyses, I personally have found that ChatGPT (the professional version, it is also available for free for a limited number of requests) is knowledgeable about meteorological datasets, especially when it comes to where from and how to download what, how the datasets differ and so on. If you get used to never trust what this bot is saying, but just consider what it returns as a random piece of information potentially relevant to what you need, at times it is very helpful.
Thanks Anastassia. My experience with ChatGPT has been mostly disappointing, but I will give it a try. No harm can come of it. Thanks for sharing Nic's article from East Africa.
Mine has been exceptionally(!) disappointing, too. Until I radically lowered my expectations. Now I understand that it, kind of, navigates islands of sense in the sea of nonsense. So when you are lucky that it returns something from the island, it is helpful.
OK Chat GTP has offered to help (with python snippets and something scripts - which mean nothing to me!). However, I have been waiting for some clay to dry sufficiently so that I can model a ceramic stove that I hope will allow southern Africa to kook millions of meals a day, far more efficiently than with anything we are using at the moment - and thus save our trees. I am NOT a potter, but I have learned that, when the clay is ready, you have to use it, otherwise you miss the opportunity. So ChatGTP's python snippet will have to wait
From my perspective, in order for this idea to gain broader attention, it might be helpful to include some basic quantitative arguments. These wouldn’t need to be detailed calculations, but even rough, first-principles estimates showing that a river dam of a given area could plausibly cause a warming of significant magnitude would strengthen the case. Simply stating that dams are large and have been there for a long time, while true, may not be persuasive on its own.
If such order-of-magnitude estimates were presented (and I haven’t seen them so far), they might prompt some researchers, especially those currently focused on topics already shown to quantitatively matter, to reconsider their priorities and take a serious look at this potentially important direction.
As for the seasonal asymmetry in Arctic warming, it could also be related to the seasonal variability of atmospheric circulation patterns. In winter, most precipitation is concentrated over the ocean and is generally higher than in summer, when moisture tends to be drawn inland (as shown in the graphs linked here https://bioticregulation.ru/ab.php?id=taac ). To convincingly argue that river dams help explain these seasonal patterns, again, some basic quantitative reasoning would be beneficial.
What a great teacher you are to accommodate your audience's wide need to understand the biotic pump phenomenon coming from different directions of thought. This essay makes it very clear. And the short video at the end is very beautiful and a call to save and restore forests everywhere. Bravo! (The historical references to Hertz and others are fascinating!)
Thank you very much for your kind words. I am finding those earlier scientific writings somehow more human than modern ones. Apparently at those times writings were not aimed to increase one's Hirsch's index but served some other purpose.
I have noticed the same thing. Science seems to have become increasingly inhuman and denatured. You might find this review interesting: https://elifesciences.org/inside-elife/6559b9fb/how-journals-like-nature-cell-and-science-are-damaging-science-the-guardian
Many thanks for your works and especially for the thoughtful and multifaceted explanations… blessings
Anastassia, Dichlorometane ( Methilene Cloride, CH₂Cl₂) , the liquid originally used for the drinkining bird toy, was a very dangerous and toxic fluids to be enveloped within a fragile glass tube. Its inhalation may provoke serious health issues to your lungs if the toys breaks. I hope that Amazon/temu/aliexpress are using an alternative-safer liquid. Just in case, plse double check. We want you healthy and in good condition...!! Thanks for the interesting explanation.
Thank you, Miquel, for your careful note. It seems that they do use methylene chloride, though it is indeed toxic. E..g., in this scientific publication from 2006 https://doi.org/10.1119/1.2190688 , they investigate a toy like mine and say it contains it.
However, the glass seems to be quite robust. My bird has already fallen four times from a table ~1.2 m high, a usual thing for me, but it did not break.
Easy fix: glue a bigger-wider-heavier base under the existing base. By the way, I am promoting a regenerative proposal www.balearsverd.org, hope it may be of your interest, since it relies on both the Biotic Pump/MIllan Millan theories.
Thank you for the link! I will forward it to our colleagues Dayana Andrade and Felipe Pasini who have been running several syntropic restoration projects in Brazil, Italy and Portugal.
You are SO amazing!! This is so clear and so easy to share. what a gift you are!
This is lucid and brilliant Anastassia. Can I have your permission to reprint it in the Climate Action Tai Tokerau website. https://northlandclimatechange.org/ I will acknowledge it as your work and link it to this page.
Thank you, Peter. You are very welcome to reprint this post.
What's the video's hyper-link... It's a great teaser to sent to my many
friends who have limited interest spans ?
I have added links to the post:
drinking bird https://youtu.be/OHAsOF2zG6c
biotic pump video in English https://youtu.be/3JyaSL2Mioc
biotic pump video in French https://youtu.be/Es8pHFUuqdI
Thanks !
Dear Anastassia, Thanks very much for another insightful article. I went straight to the Chikoori and Jury (2010) paper - as it researched Southern Africa (where I come from). I didn't really understand half of it! :-( I actually got Chat GTP to summarize it for me, and it seems I did at least partially understand it - that, within a rainy season, there are other local drivers of rainfall that operate on 20 or 40 day (I assume that is approximate?) cycles. In addition, there appears to be evidence that better vegetation growth, initiated by earlier rain, can trigger better rain during a subsequent wet cycle. This is somewhat similar to a theory that my late mother once proposed, that those people who got the best early rains, got a better rainy season afterwards. I discussed with my mother that this effect MUST be small, otherwise whoever got the first rains would corner all the subsequent rain and we would have these random oases of lush vegetation, surrounded by swathes of semi desert. I have also been reading a paper by PTS Oliveira et al about the Water Balance components across the Brazilian Cerrado. In it he mentions using TRMM version 7 for satellite rainfall data. I would dearly like to get hold of that data for southern Africa to see whether I can see any correlation between the tree cover in different parts of Southern Province of Zambia, and the rainfall. There are areas of Malawi that have a high contrast between high tree density (in national parks) and low tree density (in communally farmed areas). If these high tree density areas can show up in areas of higher rainfall in the satellite data we would have a very strong argument (with evidence) for restoring tree cover throughout the region.
Dear Bruce, thank you for your thoughtful note. A very interesting observation from your mother, indeed. It is also possible that the effect is considerable but limited in time to one season. I.e., during the dry season everything dries out, and there is no memory of who benefited most from the previous season. This should be the case when the vegetation is annual (rather than perennuals or trees).
Our biotic pump studies actually began from comparing rainfall patterns in forested versus non-forested regions of the world, see, e.g., here https://bioticregulation.ru/ab.php?id=taac and here https://bioticregulation.ru/ab.php?id=ecocom09
However, we used long-term climatological means rather than short-term data. There is a lot of variability which can mask the actual impact of trees and should be sorted out.
I would be very keen to know what you find out.
I think one of the reasons why Mum's theory doesn't dominate what is happening is because the early showers are too small (in area). One of the things one learns fairly early on (when living in a dry-ish farming environment) is, after a useful shower of rain, NEVER phone a neighbour and ask them excitedly how much rain they got! They are just as likely to answer "What Rain?". I believe any vegetation response to these early showers will be on such a small area, relative to the much larger weather systems, that any evapotranspiration contributed by these small areas, would be too diluted by the bigger weather systems for them to have a discernible effect. What I am hoping to find with the TRMMver7 data is on a much larger scale. I am fortunate to live on the edge of a large pocket of privately managed land that is perhaps 50kmx50km and is still covered in reasonable tree cover. I hope that this is big enough to show a correlation in higher rainfall, when compared to the surrounding (more extensive) area, which is much more seriously deforested. NASA are willing to share their data with me, but I am still learning how to ask for the data I need (which sadly, only goes back to about 1998). My worry is that I may have to do an awful lot of compiling of that data to get the actual figures I need. I am not sure whether I will have the time or the skills to do that. But I will give it my best as this seems to be a good chance to get the data that could convince our politicians to make the restoration of adequate tree cover, a part of national and regional policy.
@Nic Pacini shared with me the following article on East Africa which shows that the response can be mixed, but this is for a wetter region https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101999
Regarding your analyses, I personally have found that ChatGPT (the professional version, it is also available for free for a limited number of requests) is knowledgeable about meteorological datasets, especially when it comes to where from and how to download what, how the datasets differ and so on. If you get used to never trust what this bot is saying, but just consider what it returns as a random piece of information potentially relevant to what you need, at times it is very helpful.
Thanks Anastassia. My experience with ChatGPT has been mostly disappointing, but I will give it a try. No harm can come of it. Thanks for sharing Nic's article from East Africa.
Mine has been exceptionally(!) disappointing, too. Until I radically lowered my expectations. Now I understand that it, kind of, navigates islands of sense in the sea of nonsense. So when you are lucky that it returns something from the island, it is helpful.
OK Chat GTP has offered to help (with python snippets and something scripts - which mean nothing to me!). However, I have been waiting for some clay to dry sufficiently so that I can model a ceramic stove that I hope will allow southern Africa to kook millions of meals a day, far more efficiently than with anything we are using at the moment - and thus save our trees. I am NOT a potter, but I have learned that, when the clay is ready, you have to use it, otherwise you miss the opportunity. So ChatGTP's python snippet will have to wait
Lovely short video.
Heinrich Hertz nailed it.
Cute and curiously-instructive dichloromethane toy.
;-)
I'm excerpting and linking to this in the post I'm composing, too.
;-)
I’d like to respond here to Cliff Krolick’s comment https://substack.com/@emissionscritical/note/c-135240626 regarding the potential role of river dams in Arctic warming.
From my perspective, in order for this idea to gain broader attention, it might be helpful to include some basic quantitative arguments. These wouldn’t need to be detailed calculations, but even rough, first-principles estimates showing that a river dam of a given area could plausibly cause a warming of significant magnitude would strengthen the case. Simply stating that dams are large and have been there for a long time, while true, may not be persuasive on its own.
If such order-of-magnitude estimates were presented (and I haven’t seen them so far), they might prompt some researchers, especially those currently focused on topics already shown to quantitatively matter, to reconsider their priorities and take a serious look at this potentially important direction.
As for the seasonal asymmetry in Arctic warming, it could also be related to the seasonal variability of atmospheric circulation patterns. In winter, most precipitation is concentrated over the ocean and is generally higher than in summer, when moisture tends to be drawn inland (as shown in the graphs linked here https://bioticregulation.ru/ab.php?id=taac ). To convincingly argue that river dams help explain these seasonal patterns, again, some basic quantitative reasoning would be beneficial.