Thank you for this great post in honor of Viktor Gorshkov. Thank you for all the work you are doing to wake up the world to the means we still have to avert the worst case scenarios of global societal collapse.
Anastassia I applaud your excellent efforts at pointing out the differences between minor disturbances to eco systems and major disruptions. One permits the eco system to gradually recover the other leads to long lasting changes effecting climate on the planet
"Changes in the environment and climate are acknowledged as real and caused by human anthropogenic activity. However, the causes of these changes—and, accordingly, the methods for solving the problem—are fundamentally different. The primary cause of environmental and climatic changes is disruptions in the functioning of natural ecosystems."
So you've again spoken CLEARLY about forest ecosystems, logging , wildfires, biomes, biotic pumps
BUT what about the ecosystems of rivers provide? No mention in any of the above work?
Yet you talk about water vapor being the strongest GHG? Yet Bodies of water are never mentioned in connection to water vapor in the above
The Northern Hemisphere Particularly the upper latitudes subarctic, from Siberia to Northeastern Canada,houses the largest quantities of fresh water on our planet. This used to be in contained in the form of larger rivers and their tributaries but in the past 60 years both Siberias and Canadians largest living rivers have been impounded intoSEA-SIZE reservoirs and have remained this way for decades. Moving living rivers impounded almost 8 mo. of every year for decades.
One can only imagine the possible scenarios of climatic disruption brought on by these huge hydroelectric stations spreading across the top of our globe in the N. Hemisphere. Let us hope that someday Anastassia will address the River ecosystems across the planet that have been dismantled by dams. Rivers are a hydrological ecosystem correct Anastassia?
Great post, Andrei. Thanks for this biocentric perspective and for explaining how incomplete and unsatisfactory the traditional , techno-physical explanation of climate is.
Great article. I would add two comments that should peak peoples interests. It is real stuff, but "leaking to the public" is just starting and world wide money flows are being slowly redirected to it.
1. Biochar-based products will solve a lot of the problems. Its really just man made coal made from waste forest and agricultural products. It can be used for a wide variety of purposes. It solves a lot of the problems with our agricultural systems, water treatment and chemistry. The technology mimics the same earth system processes that created coal, liquid petroleum, and natural gas (methane). Essentially we can now make all three with dried plants as a feedstock. There are thousands of potential recipes. There is undeniable proofs of proofs of proofs showing that it will work.
2. Hydrogen reservoirs do exist - the USGS published a big compendium on it for the USA in January 2025. The reserves do not overlap well with oil reservoirs - but some do and they will be tapped first. There are special places on the earth known as "rifts" where water interacts with mantle materials and hydrogen is produced. There is a huge swath of potential reservoirs from Kansas, north to the great lakes and then potentially towards nova scotia along the border. Also the entire continental shelf off the east coast of the USA has the right basic geology as well - west coast of USA not so much as it is a convergent margin. But the Baja has the right geology for it.
Other notable rifts include the one where Lake Baikal (Russia) is located - it is the largest tear in the thickest lithosphere on earth. The Red Sea rift and the Great Ethiopia rift valley are also areas with high potential not only for hydrogen, but for geothermal as well. It is extremely likely that huge hydrogen reserves exist in the vicinity of these rifts.
I had never heard of the Nutrient Dilution conceptual model before. I've mostly thought about biochar from a "ground down" perspective, e.g. solid waste management, soil, agronomy, and remediation - typical for a geologist I suppose. Thank you for sharing, it is most appreciated.
Great post! I wanted to expand the discussion by unpacking nuances around disturbance and broadening the focus from forests (dominated by woody perennials where lignification represents the primary carbon pathway) to include pastoral ecosystems (dominated by herbaceous perennials where the liquid carbon pathway is primary). At this stage I consider it nitpicky as most the world is not yet on board with the need to shift focus from a fixation on emissions to the restoration of perennial ecosystem function, which also happens to restore the world's biogenic carbon sinks:
Hormesis describes the dynamic through which all complex systems adapt and evolve or deteriorate. Beneficial eustress comprises a compound cyclical fluctuating pattern of adequately dosed disturbance and adaptive recovery that somewhat resembles a sine wave. At an ecosystemic level, disturbance occurs most frequently thru animal impact and weather (eg storms), followed by fire and then geologic events (earthquakes, volcanic activity, etc). Indigenous societies understand and participate in these patterns of hormesis over the scale of years and epochs (ref intermediate disturbance hypothesis).
Animal impact is regulated by a combination of the predator-prey dynamic (the food web; ie trophic cascade ecology) and intact matrilines (epigenetic and cultural wisdom, ref Fred Provenza). Together with other forms of disturbance, animal impact and fire help manage ecological succession. Ecosystems divide into patches based on topography that exhibit a range of successive states. Mid-succession patches exhibit the greatest alpha diversity, but beta and gamma diversity matter too, which are expressed in the same biome through patch succession mosaics. So when we talk about optimizing disturbance, it must be applied across different scales of space and time. The result is something resembling a bell-shaped normal curve of ecological patch succession mosaics comprising early, mid and late succession stages, with a majority of patches representing mid- and late-stage succession dominated by perennial species capable of restoring the soil carbon sponge and activating and maintaining the biotic pump and other facets of bioprecipitation. Herbaceous perennials dominate mid-succession patches that intensively feed the soil food web via the Liquid Carbon Pathway (ref Christine Jones) with the help of animal impact. The woody perennials that dominate late-succession patches restore soil structure and microbiological habitat through the conversion of lignin into biochar and duff. Adequate optimal disturbance of these systems prevents fuels accumulation that results in catastrophic fire. Adequate woody materials must remain available within and near riparian zones for beavers and other species who use them to optimize hydrologic surface flows of water.
Catastrophic disturbance occurs in two phases: first, a (near-)simultaneously reset of patches across an ecosystem into early stages of succession dominated by annual and other early succession species, opens a significant portion of once-closed niches and destabilizes the functional diversity of species mixes; and second, chronic disturbance thereafter that prevents and disrupts the ecological succession process, restoration of mid- and late-succession patches of perennial-dominated functional diversity. Either–and especially both–phases result in a regional loss of biodiversity and disruption of the regulatory relationships of community dynamics that maintain optimal disturbance, energy flow and nutrient (including water) cycling. High density animal impact with long (eg >1yr) recovery times and careful application of fire (eg through biochar production, conservation burns and cultural fire) can create ecosystem hot spots that mimic effective community dynamics enough to restart the regulatory process on a per-patch basis and enable restoration of patch succession mosaics and biodiversity that restabilize the biosphere. These simplified anthropogenic mimicries are not the end-game of biospheric restoration, but serve two important purposes: first, they serve as stairsteps or ladders to the restoration of greater ecological complexity and functional biodiversity; second, they provide an effective and viable means of agricultural production that contributes far more to ecosystem function than plantations, orchards and chronic annual monocropping (eg, ref Syntropic Agriculture and Holistic Management).
You might be interested in Gerald Pollack's new book, Charged : The Unexpected Role of Electricity in the Workings of Nature. An alternative explanation for weather, well supported. His previous books are all fascinating as well, the previous Fourth Phase of Water is the foundation for Charged.
Thank you for this great post in honor of Viktor Gorshkov. Thank you for all the work you are doing to wake up the world to the means we still have to avert the worst case scenarios of global societal collapse.
Anastassia I applaud your excellent efforts at pointing out the differences between minor disturbances to eco systems and major disruptions. One permits the eco system to gradually recover the other leads to long lasting changes effecting climate on the planet
"Changes in the environment and climate are acknowledged as real and caused by human anthropogenic activity. However, the causes of these changes—and, accordingly, the methods for solving the problem—are fundamentally different. The primary cause of environmental and climatic changes is disruptions in the functioning of natural ecosystems."
So you've again spoken CLEARLY about forest ecosystems, logging , wildfires, biomes, biotic pumps
BUT what about the ecosystems of rivers provide? No mention in any of the above work?
Yet you talk about water vapor being the strongest GHG? Yet Bodies of water are never mentioned in connection to water vapor in the above
The Northern Hemisphere Particularly the upper latitudes subarctic, from Siberia to Northeastern Canada,houses the largest quantities of fresh water on our planet. This used to be in contained in the form of larger rivers and their tributaries but in the past 60 years both Siberias and Canadians largest living rivers have been impounded intoSEA-SIZE reservoirs and have remained this way for decades. Moving living rivers impounded almost 8 mo. of every year for decades.
One can only imagine the possible scenarios of climatic disruption brought on by these huge hydroelectric stations spreading across the top of our globe in the N. Hemisphere. Let us hope that someday Anastassia will address the River ecosystems across the planet that have been dismantled by dams. Rivers are a hydrological ecosystem correct Anastassia?
Great post, Andrei. Thanks for this biocentric perspective and for explaining how incomplete and unsatisfactory the traditional , techno-physical explanation of climate is.
Thanks Anastassia and Andrei.
Hard news.
;-(
Are you guys back in civilization? Cuz I've got questions for Andrei.
Great article. I would add two comments that should peak peoples interests. It is real stuff, but "leaking to the public" is just starting and world wide money flows are being slowly redirected to it.
1. Biochar-based products will solve a lot of the problems. Its really just man made coal made from waste forest and agricultural products. It can be used for a wide variety of purposes. It solves a lot of the problems with our agricultural systems, water treatment and chemistry. The technology mimics the same earth system processes that created coal, liquid petroleum, and natural gas (methane). Essentially we can now make all three with dried plants as a feedstock. There are thousands of potential recipes. There is undeniable proofs of proofs of proofs showing that it will work.
https://link.springer.com/journal/42773/articles
2. Hydrogen reservoirs do exist - the USGS published a big compendium on it for the USA in January 2025. The reserves do not overlap well with oil reservoirs - but some do and they will be tapped first. There are special places on the earth known as "rifts" where water interacts with mantle materials and hydrogen is produced. There is a huge swath of potential reservoirs from Kansas, north to the great lakes and then potentially towards nova scotia along the border. Also the entire continental shelf off the east coast of the USA has the right basic geology as well - west coast of USA not so much as it is a convergent margin. But the Baja has the right geology for it.
Other notable rifts include the one where Lake Baikal (Russia) is located - it is the largest tear in the thickest lithosphere on earth. The Red Sea rift and the Great Ethiopia rift valley are also areas with high potential not only for hydrogen, but for geothermal as well. It is extremely likely that huge hydrogen reserves exist in the vicinity of these rifts.
https://www.usgs.gov/publications/prospectivity-mapping-geologic-hydrogen
One of the important problems biochar helps solve is the nutrient dilution crisis:
https://ayoungethan.substack.com/p/biochar-as-biotic-regulation-compatible
I had never heard of the Nutrient Dilution conceptual model before. I've mostly thought about biochar from a "ground down" perspective, e.g. solid waste management, soil, agronomy, and remediation - typical for a geologist I suppose. Thank you for sharing, it is most appreciated.
You're dreaming if you think there's going to be a solution other than the complete collapse or modern civilisation & human population.
Great post! I wanted to expand the discussion by unpacking nuances around disturbance and broadening the focus from forests (dominated by woody perennials where lignification represents the primary carbon pathway) to include pastoral ecosystems (dominated by herbaceous perennials where the liquid carbon pathway is primary). At this stage I consider it nitpicky as most the world is not yet on board with the need to shift focus from a fixation on emissions to the restoration of perennial ecosystem function, which also happens to restore the world's biogenic carbon sinks:
Hormesis describes the dynamic through which all complex systems adapt and evolve or deteriorate. Beneficial eustress comprises a compound cyclical fluctuating pattern of adequately dosed disturbance and adaptive recovery that somewhat resembles a sine wave. At an ecosystemic level, disturbance occurs most frequently thru animal impact and weather (eg storms), followed by fire and then geologic events (earthquakes, volcanic activity, etc). Indigenous societies understand and participate in these patterns of hormesis over the scale of years and epochs (ref intermediate disturbance hypothesis).
Animal impact is regulated by a combination of the predator-prey dynamic (the food web; ie trophic cascade ecology) and intact matrilines (epigenetic and cultural wisdom, ref Fred Provenza). Together with other forms of disturbance, animal impact and fire help manage ecological succession. Ecosystems divide into patches based on topography that exhibit a range of successive states. Mid-succession patches exhibit the greatest alpha diversity, but beta and gamma diversity matter too, which are expressed in the same biome through patch succession mosaics. So when we talk about optimizing disturbance, it must be applied across different scales of space and time. The result is something resembling a bell-shaped normal curve of ecological patch succession mosaics comprising early, mid and late succession stages, with a majority of patches representing mid- and late-stage succession dominated by perennial species capable of restoring the soil carbon sponge and activating and maintaining the biotic pump and other facets of bioprecipitation. Herbaceous perennials dominate mid-succession patches that intensively feed the soil food web via the Liquid Carbon Pathway (ref Christine Jones) with the help of animal impact. The woody perennials that dominate late-succession patches restore soil structure and microbiological habitat through the conversion of lignin into biochar and duff. Adequate optimal disturbance of these systems prevents fuels accumulation that results in catastrophic fire. Adequate woody materials must remain available within and near riparian zones for beavers and other species who use them to optimize hydrologic surface flows of water.
Catastrophic disturbance occurs in two phases: first, a (near-)simultaneously reset of patches across an ecosystem into early stages of succession dominated by annual and other early succession species, opens a significant portion of once-closed niches and destabilizes the functional diversity of species mixes; and second, chronic disturbance thereafter that prevents and disrupts the ecological succession process, restoration of mid- and late-succession patches of perennial-dominated functional diversity. Either–and especially both–phases result in a regional loss of biodiversity and disruption of the regulatory relationships of community dynamics that maintain optimal disturbance, energy flow and nutrient (including water) cycling. High density animal impact with long (eg >1yr) recovery times and careful application of fire (eg through biochar production, conservation burns and cultural fire) can create ecosystem hot spots that mimic effective community dynamics enough to restart the regulatory process on a per-patch basis and enable restoration of patch succession mosaics and biodiversity that restabilize the biosphere. These simplified anthropogenic mimicries are not the end-game of biospheric restoration, but serve two important purposes: first, they serve as stairsteps or ladders to the restoration of greater ecological complexity and functional biodiversity; second, they provide an effective and viable means of agricultural production that contributes far more to ecosystem function than plantations, orchards and chronic annual monocropping (eg, ref Syntropic Agriculture and Holistic Management).
You might be interested in Gerald Pollack's new book, Charged : The Unexpected Role of Electricity in the Workings of Nature. An alternative explanation for weather, well supported. His previous books are all fascinating as well, the previous Fourth Phase of Water is the foundation for Charged.
Thanks for all your work!