The Impending Catastrophe and How to Combat It

In honor of the 90th anniversary of the birth of Viktor Georgievich Gorshkov, founder of the concept of biotic regulation of the environment.

As Friedrich Engels wrote in «Dialectics of Nature» [1],

“at every step we are reminded that we by no means rule over nature like a conqueror over a foreign people, like someone standing outside nature—but that we, with flesh, blood and brain, belong to nature, and exist in its midst, and that all our mastery of it consists in the fact that we have the advantage over all other creatures of being able to learn its laws and apply them correctly”.

Today, the role of fundamental science is more crucial than ever. Overcoming the ecological and climate crisis of civilization is possible only on a scientific ground, with a clear understanding of the causes behind the global processes unfolding in the biosphere and society. The concept of biotic regulation of the environment formulated by Victor Gorshkov could serve as a practical guide for such action.

Global Ecological and Climatic Crisis

The planet's biosphere is rapidly losing stability. The environment suitable for life continues to degrade, acting as a stress factor and leading to a deterioration in people's quality of life and health. The frequency of disasters is increasing: droughts, floods, fires, outbreaks of pest insect invasions, and the intensity of hurricanes is growing. Soils are degrading and becoming polluted, desertification areas are expanding, and the nutritional value of food products is declining. Instantaneous local and regional temperature values are experiencing unpredictable extreme fluctuations. Over the past 2023 and 2024 years, the average global temperature of Earth's surface was the highest in the entire history of observations, indicating the global nature of destabilization processes [2]. The complexity of the escalating problem is so great that it cannot be assessed within the framework of any single scientific discipline, and therefore is critically underestimated by many specialists.

To select the right solutions, a correct formulation of the problem is necessary. Today, there are two mutually exclusive approaches to the problem of climate change: the traditional approach and the concept of biotic regulation. Let us explain in more detail what their essence is.

Traditional Approach

The traditional approach assumes that the environment is randomly set in a state suitable for life and exists "on its own." Biota (flora and fauna) adapts to any surrounding environment. There are no specified optimal conditions for life. The primary cause of environmental and climatic changes is anthropogenic activity, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) and land use (industry, agriculture, energy, transport), leading to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere and an enhanced greenhouse effect. There is an opinion, enshrined in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that limiting the rise in average global temperature to no more than 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels will avert a climate catastrophe and preserve a livable climate. Such a simplified interpretation is inconsistent. For example, the question of how the accumulation of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere leads to disruptions in the land's water regime remains open. Proposed solutions to ecological and climatic problems include measures such as reducing emissions, adapting to climate change, and preserving species biodiversity.

Biotic Regulation

The concept of biotic regulation of the environment, formulated by the outstanding Soviet and Russian scientist V.G. Gorshkov, provides a coherent understanding of the fundamental principles underlying the functioning of the biosphere [3–7]. The environment is shaped by the biota itself into an optimal state that is most suitable for life. A life-suitable environment is unstable and prone to rapid decay (more precisely, over a period on the order of a decade, which is several orders of magnitude shorter than the lifespan of biological species). The biota operates nearly at the limit of its enormous capacity in order to maintain the surrounding environment in a stable state.

Changes in the environment and climate are acknowledged as real and caused by human anthropogenic activity. However, the causes of these changes—and, accordingly, the methods for solving the problem—are fundamentally different. The primary cause of environmental and climatic changes is disruptions in the functioning of natural ecosystems.

Ecosystem is a key concept in the biotic regulation framework [8,9], which allows for some analogy with the notion of a free market in economics. Just as an economic market represents competitive relationships among independent producers of goods, an ecosystem features correlated structural elements—local ecological communities of organisms that "produce" their surrounding environment. Whereas a large number of independent producers enables the regulation of an optimal market price for goods, a natural ecosystem regulates numerous environmental parameters, keeping them within a narrow range of optimal values most conducive to life. Additionally, the ecosystem includes large animals that do not belong to any specific local ecological community but represent their “shared resource”.

In a forest ecosystem, a local ecological community consists, for example, of a tree and its associated organisms, including those in the soil. The environment is created and maintained in a state of dynamic equilibrium through the combined action of oppositely directed processes: the synthesis of organic matter from inorganic components and the reverse decomposition of organic matter into inorganic elements. The forward process is performed by photosynthesizing autotrophs (plants), while the reverse process is carried out by heterotrophic organisms (bacteria, fungi, and small invertebrates). These processes are highly interconnected: autotrophs produce material consumed by heterotrophs, and heterotrophs generate products utilized by autotrophs. A mechanical analogy for this steady state is a helicopter hovering motionless in the air with a coaxial rotor configuration. Large animals are potentially capable of destroying the entire vegetation cover and, consequently, the foundation of their own existence. Therefore, in natural settings, their populations are strictly regulated by other ecosystem species, ensuring that large animals' consumption does not exceed 1% of the total consumption by all heterotrophs.

A key characteristic of ecosystems is the degree of their disturbance due to geophysical processes and/or anthropogenic activities. Natural (wild, pristine, or minimally disturbed) ecosystems are distinguished by containing genetic information on the optimal environmental parameters most suitable for life. These ecosystems possess a unique capacity to regulate the environment and climate; they can persist in a stable state and are effectively immortal. Natural ecosystems are self-sustaining. Following minor disturbances, they exhibit the ability to self-restore their climate-regulating functions. Although such disturbances may be transient, the complete recovery process for forest ecosystems (succession) spans several centuries.

There is a critical threshold of disturbance beyond which an ecosystem can no longer recover on its own. It loses its climate-regulating functions and becomes a powerful destabilizing force for the environment and climate. It is important to note that the commonly used concept of biodiversity is fundamentally insufficient for characterizing ecosystems, as it ignores the extent of their degradation and, consequently, does not account for differences in their functionality. Classifying ecosystems as either minimally or severely disturbed is similar to distinguishing between healthy and sick organisms.

The Biotic Pump of Atmospheric Moisture

In relation to the land’s water regime, biotic regulation takes the form of the biotic pump of atmospheric moisture. The biotic pump is a mechanism that operates in regions where forests are present. A natural forest consists mainly of uneven-aged, late-successional (climax) species. Unlike forests, tree plantations are even-aged stands of selected species and lack the ability to function as a biotic pump.

The biotic pump ensures a controlled inflow of atmospheric moisture onto land. It is essential to distinguish between moisture inflow and moisture transport. For inflow to occur, air must rise, which leads to cooling of water vapor, condensation, and precipitation. Without rising air and rainfall, the amount of moisture brought in by wind is equal to the amount taken away. Moisture inflow means that more moisture arrives into a given area through the atmosphere than leaves it.

Biotic regulation of moisture inflow occurs in various forms. During atmospheric moisture transport by cyclones, the intensity of the cyclone—meaning the strength of the upward air movement and precipitation—depends on the local concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn depends on transpiration from vegetation. Therefore, by maintaining optimal atmospheric moisture levels, forests can regulate precipitation, triggering rain at the right time, in the right place, and in the quantity needed. Forests also shape specific soil properties, ensuring proper infiltration of moisture and regulating the turnover time of modern groundwater.

Natural forests are highly resistant to droughts and wildfires. A closed canopy (an upper layer of interlocking tree crowns) is essential for retaining moisture in the soil. In contrast, deforestation leads to the loss of biotic control over environmental conditions, triggering chaotic extreme fluctuations in the water cycle such as droughts and floods, soil degradation, and desertification. Logging and the resulting disruption of the local water regime are the main causes of modern forest fires.

Water vapor is the primary greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Through transpiration, natural forests shape specific cloud cover, regulate the scattering of solar and thermal radiation, and provide thermal stability to the Earth's surface. Record-breaking global average temperatures in 2023 and 2024, along with the complete cessation of land-based carbon uptake, indicate that the remaining tropical and boreal forests on the planet are no longer able to fulfill their climate-regulating function on a global scale due to ongoing logging and wildfires.

It is hard to imagine today that deserts and steppes were once covered by forests and woods with stable sources of fresh water, serving as the most favorable habitats for early humans. The destruction of these ecosystems was primarily driven by intensive land use following the shift from foraging and hunting to agriculture and livestock farming. The negative experience of desertification did not become part of cultural memory. Since this issue used to be regional, it was resolved through human migration to unoccupied, habitable areas. Today, no such vacant areas remain on the planet.

Action Needed

Humans, as consumers of biosphere products, are functionally equivalent to large animals. Today, the critical destruction of the environment suitable for human life has led to a sharp global decline in fertility and a rise in various diseases. Sustainable civilization—restoring fertility and public health to stable levels—is only possible if humanity reduces its current consumption of biosphere resources by an order of magnitude. Given the universal metabolic capacity of life, this can only be achieved through a reduction in global population and the restoration of biotic regulation on a planetary scale.

The traditional approach to the climate problem is overly simplistic and fundamentally flawed. If the destruction of natural ecosystems continues, then reducing carbon dioxide and methane emissions will not stop the looming global environmental and climate catastrophe. Adapting to climate change is fundamentally impossible because there is no stable physical or chemical state of the climate that is inherently suitable for life. No cutting-edge technology can resolve the issue of stabilizing the environment and climate, which—without biotic regulation—will rapidly degrade into an uninhabitable state within decades. Humanity lacks the energy and informational capacity for artificial regulation of Earth’s environment, not to mention the fact that the necessary knowledge of how to do so simply does not exist [11,12].

Claims that human civilization will one day relocate and live on another planet are a myth. The key to solving the global climate crisis lies in preserving wild nature—natural ecosystems—in the quantities required for them to fulfill their climate-regulating functions and maintain the environment in a life-supporting state.

What must be done?
At the global level, the following urgent actions are necessary:

1. Impose a moratorium on the development of intact (climate-regulating) forest areas. This applies primarily to the tropical forests of the Amazon, Congo, and Indonesia, as well as the boreal forests of Canada and Russia.

2. Establish buffer zones of maximum possible size around all intact territories, closed to logging.

3. Reduce wood consumption, allowing logging only on plantations of targeted tree species.

4. Restore heavily degraded forest ecosystems to a state where they can regulate climate.

In relation to Russia, the following must be noted:

1. In recent decades, China has become an ecological disaster zone due to excessive economic development. While planting and maintaining tree plantations on its own territory, Chinese businesses are actively logging natural forests in Siberia and the Russian Far East. These forests play a key role in atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean to China and the countries of Central Asia. Their destruction disrupts water inflow to these regions.

2. The melting of ice and permafrost in the Arctic is being worsened by the destruction of boreal forests in Canada and Russia, primarily due to logging and the fires that follow logging. The economic benefit of industrial development in these areas is negligible compared to the negative consequences of regional and global climate collapse.

3. The catastrophic wildfires in Yakutia, Zabaykalsky Krai, Amur and Irkutsk regions, and Primorye are a direct result of large-scale logging in these areas.

Urgent measures needed:

1. Impose a moratorium on logging across the entire territory of the Russian Federation north of the 58th parallel.

2. Impose a moratorium on logging in all minimally disturbed forest areas of the Russian Federation.

3. Withdraw all minimally disturbed territories from private ownership and transfer them to state ownership; annul all lease agreements. The only exception should be made for the Indigenous small-numbered peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Russian Far East who reside permanently in these areas and maintain traditional ways of life.

4. Ban the export of timber and timber products. Reduce timber production and restrict its use to the domestic market only.

5. In addition to the Baikal and Irkutsk regions, reconsider the development strategy for Lower Priangarye, where large-scale destruction of minimally disturbed forests in Krasnoyarsk Krai and southern Evenkia is currently underway, alongside plans for expanding hydroelectric development. The current economic development model in this area is incompatible with addressing climate change and preserving the water cycle.

6. Develop strategic environmental cooperation with China and the countries of Central Asia, aimed at preserving the climate-regulating capacity of the natural Eurasian forests, relieving them from anthropogenic pressure while investing in industrial timber plantations instead [13].

References

1. Engels F. Dialectics of Nature. London: Wellred Books, 1960. 410 p.

2. Goessling, H. F., Rackow, T., Jung, T. Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo // Science. 2025. V. 387. Iss. 6729. P. 68–73.

3. Горшков В.Г. Пределы устойчивости окружающей среды // Докл. АН СССР. 1988. Т. 301. № 4. С. 1015–1019.

4. Горшков В. Г. Современные глобальные изменения окружающей среды и возможности их предотвращения // Докл. РАН. 1993. Т. 332. № 6. С. 802–806.

5. Горшков В. Г. Физические и биологические основы устойчивости жизни. М.: ВИНИТИ, 1995. 470 с.

6. Gorshkov V. G. Physical and Biological Bases of Life Stability: Man. Biota. Environment. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer-Verlag, 1995. 340 pp.

7. Gorshkov V. G., Gorshkov V. V., Makarieva A. M. Biotic Regulation of the Environment: Key Issue of Global Change. Springer-Praxis Series in Environmental Sciences. Chichester: Praxis. Berlin: Springer, 2000. 367 pp.

8. Горшков В. Г. Устойчивость биогеохимических круговоротов // Экология. 1985. № 2. С. 3–12.

9. Gorshkov V. G., Makarieva A. M., Gorshkov V. V. Revising the fundamentals of ecological knowledge: The biota-environment interaction // Ecol. Complex. 2004. V. 1. Iss. 1. P. 17–36.

10. Gorshkov V.G., Makarieva A.M. Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land // Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2007. V. 11. Iss. 2. P. 1013–1033.

11. Gorshkov V. G., Dol'nik V. R. Energetics of the biosphere // Soviet Physics Uspekhi. – 1980. – Т. 23. – №. 7. – С. 386.

12. Горшков В.Г. Запасы и потоки информации в биоте и цивилизации // Докл. РАН. 1996. Т. 350. № 1. С. 135–138.

13. Makarieva, A. M., Nefiodov, A. V., Morozov, V. E., Aleynikov, A. A., & Vasilov, R. G. (2020). Science in the vanguard of rethinking the role of forests in the third millennium: comments on the draft concept of the federal law “Forest code of the Russian Federation”. Forest Science Issues, 3, 1-25.

PS This is a scheduled post. If we don’t disappear in the taiga, we will be back online in early October.